WTIO31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 49.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 49.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.0N 48.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 14.5N 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.0N 46.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 49.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 021730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 021538Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 04A HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LAND. TC 04A IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF YEMEN AROUND TAU 12. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. RAPID DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECASTED DIRECTION OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL STEER THE SYSTEM AS IT WEAKENS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//