WTIO31 PGTW 031500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 024//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   031200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 47.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 47.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 14.3N 47.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 14.7N 46.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

031500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 47.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 743 NM

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED

ON MID TO LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED

LLCC AS SEEN IN THE MSI ANIMATION. DUE TO THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONS

AND MICROWAVE DATA, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS OVER LAND

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FURTHER DROPPED

TO 55 KNOTS, REFLECTING THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL

REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO

MODERATE VWS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF OMAN.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER

THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. ADDITIONALLY, TC CHAPALA WILL CONTINUE TO

RAPIDLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,

INCREASED VWS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

FROM THE HADHRAMAUT REGION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK

FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//