WTIO31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 63.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 63.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 13.3N 61.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.9N 60.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.6N 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 12.4N 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 12.2N 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.5N 48.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.7N 45.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 63.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 051500Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC BENEATH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE EIR LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS DRY AIR SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE; HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT THE DRY AIR HAS NOT STARTED TO PENETRATE THE CIRCULATION. TC MEGH IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER OMAN. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, ALONG TRACK SSTS WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS, STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN LAND INTERACTION AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCOTRA ISLAND AND THE HORN OF AFRICA. TC 05A WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//