WTIO31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MEGH) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 60.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 60.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.7N 59.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 12.4N 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 12.1N 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.9N 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.1N 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 12.4N 47.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 12.9N 45.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 60.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MEGH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A COMPACT LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 061737Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, WHICH APPEARS TO BE HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS AND AN ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 120. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF ADEN. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER MARGINALLY- FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05A SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//