WTPS31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 174.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 174.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 14.8S 172.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.4S 170.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.2S 169.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.6S 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.5S 166.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 173.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 272115Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE METOP-B IMAGE AND MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON THE 272116Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH SST VALUES DROPPING BELOW 26 CELSIUS, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 04P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A GALE-FORCE LOW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, DUE TO POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE MUCH SLOWER, UNREALISTIC NAVGEM AND GFDN SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//