WTPS31 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300051ZDEC2015// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 166.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 166.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 14.2S 166.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.9S 168.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 17.1S 169.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.8S 171.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.2S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 19.0S 178.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 20.6S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 166.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). A 300507Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ADDITIONALLY, A 292057Z ASCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 50 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. TC 06P IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND BEGIN TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH LIMITED, IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 300051ZDEC15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300100).//