WTPS31 PGTW 302100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 167.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 167.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 16.7S 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 17.3S 170.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.7S 172.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.9S 174.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.1S 177.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.6S 178.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 19.5S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 167.5W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT WELL-DEFINED IN THE 301732Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND NFFN AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS ASSUMED STEERING AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 06P. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC ULA WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UP TO 75 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENIDNIG HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//