WTPS31 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 169.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 169.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.0S 171.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.7S 174.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.1S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.5S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.7S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 20.5S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.8S 179.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 170.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROUGHLY 7 NM DIAMETER DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE AND A GENERALLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND MEANDER POLEWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48 AND ALONG- TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL FALL AFTER TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 120. NUMERCIAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE NAVGEM, GFDN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE TIGHTLY-PACKED PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//