WTPA21 PHFO 110303

TCMCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

0300 UTC MON JAN 11 2016



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  7.5N 174.0W AT 11/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT.......100NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 250NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  7.5N 174.0W AT 11/0300Z

AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  7.4N 174.0W



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z  7.9N 173.8W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z  8.0N 173.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  30SE  55SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z  6.5N 172.3W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...  0NE  25SE  45SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z  4.5N 172.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z  3.0N 173.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z  2.0N 175.0W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  7.5N 174.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON