WTPA41 PHFO 080840

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016



AFTER A BRIEF DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING

ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING NEAR THE CORE OF PALI. DEEP CONVECTION HAS

BEEN FAIRLY STEADY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST...WITHIN AN

AREA THAT IS THE EASTERN END OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL SURFACE TROUGH

THAT RUNS THROUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...AND THE CURRENT

INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE

WIND AND SEAS RADII BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER

DATA.



PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...325 DEGREES...AT 7 KT IN AN

AREA OF RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS

EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE

TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL

WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY

WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. THE

SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR MOTION

TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH

A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE

TROUGH. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH

ALL EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE

TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND IS

ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT

SLOWER IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.



INTENSITY FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. BEING IN

THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATE

EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT...AND A 0315 UTC SSMIS

PASS HINTED AT SOME WESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT TO THE CYCLONE.

CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND...TO SOME

DEGREE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS

DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.









FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0900Z  5.9N 171.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  08/1800Z  6.9N 172.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  09/0600Z  7.7N 173.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  09/1800Z  8.0N 174.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  10/0600Z  8.3N 174.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  11/0600Z  8.3N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  12/0600Z  7.9N 175.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  13/0600Z  7.3N 175.5W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

FORECASTER WROE