WTPA41 PHFO 082044

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 AM HST FRI JAN 08 2016



DEEP CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM PALI DECREASED AND BECAME LESS

ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A 1407 UTC SSMI PASS...FOLLOWED SOON

AFTER BY A 1556 UTC SSMS PASS...SHOWED LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINED WELL

ORGANIZED...WITH THE LLCC ALMOST 60 NM EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION.

THESE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO SHOWED THAT PALI MOVED DUE WEST FROM THE

1200 UTC BEST TRACK POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY UNREPRESENTATIVE.

THE 1200 UTC POSITION WAS THEREFORE REBESTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND

WEST TO GIVE PALI A SMOOTH CURVING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT-B PASS REMAINS COMPELLING...STRONGLY SUGGESTING

A 55 KT SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY HIGHER...

AT 58 KT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH GIVEN SYSTEM APPEARANCE IN

IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE

3.0...45 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS...LIKE LAST

TIME...BUT WE WILL ASSIGN A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 55 KT FOR INITIAL

INTENSITY AS A NOD TO THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND UW-CIMSS

CONSENSUS.



WITH THE REBESTED 1200 UTC POSITION TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...TROPICAL

STORM PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES...AT 4

KT. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCED BY

STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. TRACK GUIDANCE IS

REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...DEPICTING MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARD THE

WESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD

THE SOUTHWEST FROM DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE

DIFFERS OVER HOW SHARP THE SOUTHWEST TURN WILL BE. THE FORECAST

TRACK WAS BUMPED LEFT DUE TO INITIAL MOTION...BUT FOLLOWS THE SAME

GENERAL CURVING TRACK BETWEEN GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS. PALI IS

FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEYOND 48 HOURS AS STEERING FLOW

WEAKENS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE DATELINE THROUGH DAY

FIVE.



OCEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND PALI ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION...AND SHEAR ACROSS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO

DECREASE ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED

INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN

PALI AFTER 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY FIVE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/2100Z  7.1N 172.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  09/0600Z  7.4N 173.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  09/1800Z  7.8N 174.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  10/0600Z  8.0N 174.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  10/1800Z  8.0N 174.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  11/1800Z  7.9N 175.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  12/1800Z  7.6N 175.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  13/1800Z  6.7N 176.0W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

FORECASTER POWELL