WTPA41 PHFO 090840 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016 1100 PM HST FRI JAN 08 2016 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS DETERIORATED THIS EVENING... WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM A 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB TO 3.0/45 KT OUT OF JTWC AND HFO...WHILE A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE WAS AT 43 KT. ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT AT 0905 UTC AND THIS MORNING AT 2047 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN ITS HISTORY OF STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WINDS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 50 KT. PALI IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300 DEGREES... AT 4 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY AS PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE. THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR PALI TO SLOWLY MEANDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON DAYS TWO AND THREE... THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFEX AND WAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH ON DAY THREE THROUGH FIVE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UNDER EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND CIMSS ESTIMATES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PALI IN THE SHORT TERM. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX ON DAY TWO...BUT WITH PALI REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH...FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH DAY FIVE AND IS NEAR SHIPS AND LGEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 7.9N 173.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 8.1N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 8.2N 174.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 8.2N 174.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 8.0N 174.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 7.5N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 6.3N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 4.4N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER WROE