WTPA41 PHFO 100255

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 PM HST SAT JAN 09 2016



DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE

LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALI. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO...2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND

1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC. THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF PALI HAS

DETERIORATED JUST A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THUS WE HAVE

LOWERED THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR

THIS ADVISORY.



PALI IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...WITH ITS CURRENT MOTION

AT 270/02 KT. PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO

EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE.

THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF

ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...MUCH OF WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE

EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE

CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW

PALI STALLING WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...WITH A RATHER SCATTERED MEANDERING TRACK FORECAST BY THE

MODELS. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW PALI DIVING SOUTHWARD ON DAY 3. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.



EASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE

INDICATING 16 KT OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR

ESTIMATE SEEMS UNREALISTIC AT A MEAGER 2 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WEAKENING

OVER TIME. THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SWING

AROUND TO THE SOUTH BEYOND DAY 3. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN

INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFDL AND

HWRF BEING THE BIGGEST OUTLIERS STRENGTHENING PALI INTO A HURRICANE

BY AROUND 72 HOURS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS IT THE FASTEST.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST AND WEAKENS PALI TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE

SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH

ECMWF GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0300Z  7.7N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z  7.7N 174.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  11/0000Z  7.7N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  11/1200Z  7.6N 175.2W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  12/0000Z  7.4N 175.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  13/0000Z  6.3N 175.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 96H  14/0000Z  4.8N 176.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

120H  15/0000Z  2.8N 177.2W   25 KT  30 MPH



$$

FORECASTER BURKE