WTPA41 PHFO 100851

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 PM HST SAT JAN 09 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS CHANGED

LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINING NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF

THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO...2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT

FROM JTWC. CIMSS ADT CURRENTLY SHOWS 2.5/35 KT...WHILE THE LATEST

CIMSS SATCON CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE STANDS AT 40 KT. WE HAVE

MAINTAINED PALI AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE LLCC IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE

TUCKED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT ANALYSIS

OF LOW CLOUD LINES VISIBLE IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HIMAWARI DATA

ALONG WITH A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PALI HAS

MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A

LARGER EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT LIES BETWEEN A

LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF

THE EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE

CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN

REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...DEPICTING A SLOW

NORTHEAST TO EAST DRIFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36

HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY 48 HOURS.

THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTH

SOUTHWEST...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS

TRACK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND IS IN BEST

AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS. FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...

THE NEW TRACK ENDS UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SHOWING

A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE EQUATOR.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. AFTER A LONG PERIOD WITH

ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE LLCC ON FRIDAY

NIGHT...PALI HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE

CENTER FOR ABOUT THE PAST 18 HOURS NOW. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION

IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE

SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 KT BY SHIPS AND 10 KT BY THE UW-

CIMSS ANALYSIS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHEAR DIRECTION GRADUALLY

VEERING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE SO

CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WIDE

SPREAD...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE

BY 96 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM WEAKEN PALI TO A DEPRESSION...AND

THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL

MAINTAIN PALI AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN

WEAKEN IT TO A DEPRESSION THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO

THE EQUATOR AND ENCOUNTERS PREDICTED SOUTHERLY SHEAR.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0900Z  7.7N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  10/1800Z  7.8N 174.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  11/0600Z  7.9N 174.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  11/1800Z  8.0N 173.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  12/0600Z  7.6N 173.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 72H  13/0600Z  5.2N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  14/0600Z  3.0N 175.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  15/0600Z  1.5N 176.5W   30 KT  35 MPH



$$

FORECASTER JACOBSON