WTPA41 PHFO 102054 TCDCP1 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016 1100 AM HST SUN JAN 10 2016 PALI HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NORTHEAST OF A 350 MILE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. AMSU IMAGERY AT 1441 UTC SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION UNDER THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 2.5/35 KT...WITH 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS I HAVE MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 45 KT. ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE POSITIONS SHOW PALI MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. PALI REMAINS IN AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS PALI MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THESE CHANGES SHIFT THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... MAINTAINING PALI AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IT TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 7.8N 173.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 7.9N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 7.8N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 7.3N 172.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 6.5N 172.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 4.5N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 3.0N 174.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 1.5N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER DONALDSON