WTPA41 PHFO 110313

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 PM HST SUN JAN 10 2016



OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE COLD TOPS OVER PALI HAVE SHIFTED OFF

TO THE EAST...BUT THE CURVED BAND HAS WRAPPED FARTHER AROUND THE

CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 10/2331 UTC AND 11/0149Z APPEAR TO SHOW

A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB AND

2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THE RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES I HAVE

INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.



ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE

POSITIONS SHOW PALI MOVING VERY SLOWLY. PALI REMAINS IN AN EAST

NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO

THE NORTH AND WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE EQUATOR. TROPICAL CYCLONES

WITHIN TROUGHS LIKE THIS...WHICH IS MUCH LIKE A MONSOON

TROUGH...OFTEN MAKE SLOW LOOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH...AND PALI SEEMS TO

BE DOING THAT. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD

AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48

HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE

SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW

OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TRACK

AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.



CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LOW SHEAR

ALONG THE TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CHANGING CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO

SHOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR. ALSO...IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL

THAT PALI WOULD REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO VERY LOW

LATITUDES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BOOSTED A BIT SINCE

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAINS PALI AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH

96 HOURS...THEN WEAKENS IT TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE

EQUATOR.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/0300Z  7.5N 174.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z  7.9N 173.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  12/0000Z  8.0N 173.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  12/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  13/0000Z  6.5N 172.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  14/0000Z  4.5N 172.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 96H  15/0000Z  3.0N 173.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

120H  16/0000Z  2.0N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH



$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON