WTPA41 PHFO 120843

TCDCP1



HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI HAS CHANGED LITTLE

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE

SOUTH HAS BEGUN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB...AND

JTWC ALL CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT...AND GIVEN ITS STEADY APPEARANCE...

THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE WIND

RADII WERE ALTERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS EARLIER IN THE

DAY.



WITH PALI IN THE ACT OF TURNING SOUTHWARD...THE INITIAL MOTION IS

SET AT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...OR 160 DEGREES...AT 6 KT. THE HURRICANE

REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF

WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND A DEEP RIDGE

CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 20N. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS

STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS DRIVING THE SOUTHWARD TURN OF PALI. AS PALI

SLOWLY APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE

EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION...THOUGH CONTINUED INTERACTION

WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION SOMEWHAT. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND

REMAINS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFEX AND TVCN ON THE

SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS FAIR TO SAY

THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS PALI MOVES CLOSER TO THE

EQUATOR.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY

OBSERVED. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING

TO CIMSS AND SHIPS IS NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT ON PALI AT THIS

TIME...AS OUTFLOW PERSISTS ON ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH PALI WILL

REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C ALONG THE

FORECAST TRACK...SHIPS INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR

THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS

THE TREND OF THE ICON. THE GFDL MAINTAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM AND IS

THE OUTLIER THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS

RE-INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THAT SCENARIO IS

QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE RARELY SEEN LOW LATITUDES ON THE FORECAST

TRACK.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/0900Z  7.5N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  12/1800Z  6.7N 171.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  13/0600Z  5.5N 172.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  13/1800Z  4.5N 172.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  14/0600Z  3.8N 173.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  15/0600Z  2.8N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  16/0600Z  2.7N 177.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  17/0600Z  2.6N 179.1W   55 KT  65 MPH



$$

FORECASTER WROE