WTPA41 PHFO 131459

TCDCP1



HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

500 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016



PALI CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY

AFTERNOON...WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING A MORE RAPID RATE OF

DECAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST SATELLITE ANALYSTS VIEWING

RECENT DATA WITHOUT CONTEXT WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO DEEM PALI A

HURRICANE. SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NEAR

15 KT...AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS...WITH

OUTFLOW ALOFT RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE DATA-T

/DT/ VALUES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES INDICATE WEAKENING...DVORAK

CONSTRAINTS PREVENT THE CURRENT INTENSITY /CI/ VALUES FROM BEING

LOWERED DURING INITIAL WEAKENING...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 4.0/65

KT TO 5.0/90 KT...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY FOR PALI IS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY...WHICH STILL REPRESENTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE

PAST 12 HOURS.



PALI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THE

CURRENT MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 210/07

KT. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED

RIDGE WELL NORTH OF PALI...ALONG 18N-20N. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE

DRIVING THE CURRENT MOTION...WHICH IS FORCING PALI DEEPER INTO A

NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE

LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF

RUNS...AND THE UPDATED OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

PREVIOUS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT PALI

WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST

ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4...AND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALL WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST...WITH THE UPDATED

INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND LIES CLOSE

TO SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO OBSERVED TRENDS...BUT

ALSO DUE TO TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN

INCREASING THE RATE OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. WATER

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...AS SSTS AND

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO

SUPPORT A STRONG HURRICANE. SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW

TO MODERATE THOUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WEAKER SHEAR IN LATER

FORECAST PERIODS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING PALI TO RESTRENGTHEN WEST OF

THE DATE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PALI WILL BE ABLE

TO SURVIVE THE WESTWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL

TROUGH...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT PALI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE

WITHIN THE TROUGH.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  13/1500Z  4.2N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  14/0000Z  3.5N 172.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  14/1200Z  2.9N 173.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  15/0000Z  2.6N 174.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  15/1200Z  2.4N 175.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  16/1200Z  2.4N 178.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  17/1200Z  2.6N 178.5E   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  18/1200Z  3.5N 176.0E   55 KT  65 MPH



$$



FORECASTER BIRCHARD