WTPA41 PHFO 132102

TCDCP1



HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016



PALI CONTINUES ON ITS UNUSUAL JANUARY JOURNEY THROUGH THE FAR

SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS

ESTIMATED TO BE 200/6 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BASED PARTLY ON

A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE 12 UTC POSITION USING MICROWAVE IMAGERY

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE CONTINUES TO

BE DISRUPTED...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST SHEAR

OF 15 TO 20 KT ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS

ANALYSES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF

FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM HFO...JTWC...SAB...AND

THE CIMSS ADT. OUR ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS...AS THE CIMSS SATCON

ESTIMATE WAS ONLY 58 KT.



PALI/S UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY. THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER

RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TO WAKE

ISLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48

HOURS WITH PALI MAKING A BROAD ARC AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM A

SOUTHWARD MOTION TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE

RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL-CLUSTERED AFTER 48

HOURS...MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF PALI APPEAR IN THE

GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD

MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE REASON

FOR THIS DIFFERENCE...BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE HAD SOME

DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE SO CLOSE TO THE

EQUATOR. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE FROM THE

PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.



MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS WELL AS PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE

EQUATOR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND

THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS SHOW SHEAR WEAKENING ALONG

THE FORECAST TRACK...AND PLENTY OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF

PALI CAN SURVIVE IT/S CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH THE EQUATOR...

REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN

PACIFIC. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW...

HOWEVER.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  13/2100Z  3.4N 171.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  14/0600Z  2.8N 172.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  14/1800Z  2.3N 173.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  15/0600Z  2.1N 174.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  15/1800Z  1.9N 176.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  16/1800Z  2.0N 178.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  17/1800Z  2.3N 178.5E   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  18/1800Z  3.2N 175.7E   55 KT  65 MPH



$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD