WTPA41 PHFO 140857

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016

1100 PM HST WED JAN 13 2016



PALI CONTINUES ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY

AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID WEAKENING OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

ASIDE FROM THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF

THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES

SHOW THAT ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WANING...WITH COLD CLOUD

TOPS STEADILY WARMING AND DIMINISHING IN AREA. RECENT MICROWAVE

OVERPASSES INCLUDE A 0437Z AMSU-B PASS AND A 0628Z SSMIS PASS...AND

BOTH REVEALED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITHIN THE

DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY...WITH DATA-T VALUES DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE

DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...PHFO/SAB/PGTW ALL

DERIVED FINAL-T VALUES OF 2.5/35 KT...WITH CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KT...DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

BLENDING THIS DATA YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR

THIS ADVISORY.



DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...OR EVEN IT/S CONTINUED

EXISTENCE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 205/6 KT IS STRONGLY

BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. PALI REMAINS

SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS A CORRESPONDING RIDGE

THAT EXTENDS EAST ALONG 17N. ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN

THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF PALI...LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN

REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH IT/S GENERAL MOTION. THE EXPECTATION IS

THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING

MECHANISM...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE A BROAD ARC AS IT GRADUALLY

TRANSITIONS TO A SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...

AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCN...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE BEING A SLIGHT

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS.



OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TO

SUPPORT A STRONG CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AND PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR ARE

EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH

PALI BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION FOR

PALI HINGES ON WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN SURVIVE THESE NEGATIVE

INFLUENCES IN THE SHORT TERM TO RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE LATER FORECAST

PERIODS...WHEN SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS PALI SLOWLY GAINS

LATITUDE. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL

OCCUR WEST OF THE DATE LINE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH PALI FORECAST TO

BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY SHIPS AND IVCN. IN CONTRAST...THE

UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN

THE LATER PERIODS...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL THAT PALI

DISSIPATES BEFORE EVER CROSSING THE DATE LINE...AS DEPICTED BY THE

LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  14/0900Z  2.3N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  14/1800Z  1.9N 173.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  15/0600Z  1.5N 174.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  15/1800Z  1.3N 175.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

 48H  16/0600Z  1.3N 177.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 72H  17/0600Z  1.5N 179.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 96H  18/0600Z  2.0N 177.5E   30 KT  35 MPH

120H  19/0600Z  3.0N 174.5E   30 KT  35 MPH



$$



FORECASTER BIRCHARD