WTPA41 PHFO 141444 TCDCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016 500 AM HST THU JAN 14 2016 PALI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL BUT PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0856Z SQUARELY SAMPLED PALI...AND DETECTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 KT... SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN A RAPIDSCAT PASS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO RAISES THE QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS ANY LONGER...OR IF A SHARP TROUGH IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PALI. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES... INCLUDING A 0925Z METOP-A OVERPASS...INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LIMITED CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE ON THEIR RAPID DECLINE...WITH FINAL-T VALUES RANGING FROM 2.0/30 KT TO 2.5/35 KT...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT TO 3.0/45 KT. PLACING INCREASED EMPHASIS ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND BLENDING IT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...PALI IS ESTIMATED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS PERSISTING...AND AFTER MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 0000Z AND 0600Z POSITION ESTIMATES... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN 230/5 KT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AND PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE SMALL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR WHICH AIDED IN THE DEVELOMENT OF PALI A WEEK AGO ARE NO LONGER PRESENT...WITH THE FLOW NOW HEADED TOWARD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THUS IT NOW APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT PALI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PALI WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFS GUIDANCE. PALI IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL THIS OCCURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 2.5N 173.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 2.2N 173.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD