WTPS31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 166.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 166.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.5S 166.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.6S 166.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.8S 166.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.6S 166.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.4S 167.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.8S 169.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.7S 170.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 166.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 170627Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS WITHIN THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC VICTOR WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST (27 TO 28 DEGREE CELSIUS) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 07P IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TRACK WESTWARD AROUND TAU 48. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//