WTPS31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 166.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 166.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.6S 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.1S 167.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.3S 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.4S 169.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.4S 172.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.7S 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.0S 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 166.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED EYE WHICH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN 180728Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AND REFLECT THE DECREASE IN THE EYE DIAMETER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 07P WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 07P HAS REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AND IS BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, STEERING THE SYSTEM ONTO A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, TC 07P WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH COLDER WATER AND HIGH VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 96, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//