WTPS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 20.8S 167.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 167.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.2S 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.5S 169.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.6S 170.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.8S 171.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.0S 172.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.9S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 28.8S 173.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 35NM EYE; HOWEVER, ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 190528Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALLER (25NM) AND MORE DEFINED EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T5.0 (90 KTS); HOWEVER, SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 81 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC VICTOR IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. TC 07P WILL BEGIN A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS SUPPORTING A WESTWARD TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING, BUT SPREADS BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD BEYOND TAU 36 LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//