WTPS31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 168.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 168.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.7S 169.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.7S 170.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.7S 172.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.1S 173.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 24.6S 175.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 28.0S 175.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 31.4S 176.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 169.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STEADY CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED 45-NM EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 200514Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A POOR DEPICTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY WELL- DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BAND OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO TC 07P FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL HINDER FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE THE INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND A 200515Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 68 KTS WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH IS SUSTAINING THE LIMITED CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC VICTOR IS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. BY TAU 48 A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND INCREASING THE VWS. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07P WILL ALSO ROUND THE STR AXIS, INDUCING A SOUTHWARD TRACK INTO COLDER SSTS FURTHER EXACERBATING THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96 TC VICTOR WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING A WEAK COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH NAVGEM AS THE LONE OUTLIER, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//