WTPS31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 172.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 172.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.1S 173.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.1S 175.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 25.0S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.9S 175.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 172.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM EAST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM HAS DRASTICALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS FURTHER ENHANCED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE UPPER LEVEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND WILL STEADILY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWARD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS, IN COMBINATION WITH MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE LLCC AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//