WTPS31 PGTW 220900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 016//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 016

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   220600Z --- NEAR 22.0S 174.3W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 174.3W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   221800Z --- 23.1S 175.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   230600Z --- 24.8S 176.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 174.6W.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH

MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

HOWEVER, A 220704Z 91 GHZ IMAGE STILL SHOWS TIGHT SHALLOW BANDING

WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TC VICTOR IS BEING STEERED WEST-

SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

AND HAS ENTERED A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND

DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS

HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 12

HOURS. TC VICTOR IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT

BECOMES FULLY ENVELOPED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM

THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAY REGAIN

INTENSITY WITHIN THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ATTAINS SUBTROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE MAY INCLUDE

SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IF NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND ADDITIONAL

GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON THAT SOLUTION. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST

IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SUPPORTED BY

A TIGHT PACKING OF MODEL FORECAST TRACKS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 222100Z.//