WTPS51 PGTW 182100 WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160118195934 2016011818 07P VICTOR 009 01 195 04 SATL 060 T000 201S 1662W 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD T012 206S 1667W 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD T024 211S 1674W 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD T036 213S 1686W 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD T048 214S 1696W 065 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD T072 214S 1723W 055 R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD T096 227S 1750W 045 T120 260S 1764W 045 AMP 120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 166.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 166.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.6S 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.1S 167.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.3S 168.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.4S 169.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.4S 172.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.7S 175.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.0S 176.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 166.3W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED EYE WHICH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN 180728Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AND REFLECT THE DECREASE IN THE EYE DIAMETER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 07P WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 07P HAS REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AND IS BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, STEERING THE SYSTEM ONTO A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, TC 07P WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH COLDER WATER AND HIGH VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 96, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.// 0716011318 121S1651W 25 0716011400 126S1649W 25 0716011406 131S1648W 25 0716011412 136S1649W 30 0716011418 140S1652W 35 0716011500 143S1655W 40 0716011506 145S1658W 45 0716011512 144S1660W 55 0716011512 144S1660W 55 0716011518 143S1661W 65 0716011518 143S1661W 65 0716011600 145S1661W 70 0716011600 145S1661W 70 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011606 147S1662W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011612 149S1663W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011618 151S1664W 75 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011700 155S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011706 161S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011712 168S1664W 70 0716011718 174S1664W 65 0716011718 174S1664W 65 0716011800 182S1663W 65 0716011800 182S1663W 65 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011806 191S1661W 75 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011812 197S1661W 80 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011818 201S1662W 90 0716011818 201S1662W 90