WTXS31 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281021Z JAN 16// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 117.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 117.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.4S 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.5S 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.1S 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 23.3S 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 117.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY- CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 290057Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE, ALLOWING 09S TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. TC 09S MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 281030Z JAN 16 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 281030).//