WTXS31 PGTW 291500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 118.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 118.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.1S 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.6S 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 22.7S 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 24.5S 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 118.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291129Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND AMBIGUOUS LLCC. A COMPARISON WITH THE 91 GHZ CHANNEL SUGGESTS THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DUE TO INCREASED AGENCY FIX UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT POSITON IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES T3.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES VWS SHOULD RELAX PRIOR TO LANDFALL, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 55 TO 60 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//