WTXS31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 118.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 118.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.0S 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.8S 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 23.2S 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 26.2S 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 118.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291759Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REFLECTS THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE CENTER NOW LOCATED WITHIN THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES, RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES OF 53 TO 55 KNOTS, AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM ROWLEY SHOALS SHOWING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH 59 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VWS, AND SSTS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TC 09S IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//