WTXS31 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.2S 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 22.6S 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 25.9S 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 119.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND A THIN BAND STREAMING FROM COASTAL AUSTRALIA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TC 09S. POSITIONING IS BASED ON THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR ANIMATION AND THE MSI. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KTS DUE TO THE FORMATION OF THE WEAKLY DEFINED EYE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF ALL INDICATING T4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VWS, AND SSTS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TC 09S IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//