WTXS31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 119.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 119.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 21.1S 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 23.9S 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 27.4S 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 119.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE FLARE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND BY TRACKING THESE FEATURES IN THE SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) ALONG WITH THE RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND LEADS TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS AS OVERALL STRUCTURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT T4.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONSISTENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND IN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UPON LANDFALL AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//