WTXS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 24.7S 53.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 53.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.3S 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 28.3S 56.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 31.7S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 35.6S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 42.6S 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 53.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEGREE OF WRAP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 102223Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED WRAP IN THE FEEDER BANDS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//