WTXS31 PGTW 120300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 004//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAYA) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120000Z --- NEAR 28.8S 57.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 16 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 57.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 32.3S 59.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

120300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 57.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DAYA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM SOUTH

OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION

HAS BECOME SHALLOWER, FRAGMENTED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE

INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW

REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 112354Z 91GHZ SSMIS

MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED

FROM AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FIMP.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC DAYA HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF

HIGH (30 KNOT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (26 CELSIUS AND DROPPING). THESE CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO PERSIST, IF NOT WORSEN, CONTRIBUTING TO THE DISSIPATION

OF TC 10S IN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY

THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET.//