WTPS31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.0S 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.9S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.3S 172.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.1S 173.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 25.0S 175.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.8S 179.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.0S 177.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SPIRALING INTO A TIGHT, CLOUD COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 111251Z GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. AN 111035Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, CONFIRMING BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE WIND RADII. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) EXCEEDING 31 CELSIUS, VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20 KNOTS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC WINSTON IS THE DEEP-LAYER, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC WINSTON IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR BECOMES ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, TC WINSTON WILL ROUND THE AXIS AND TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 96 THE STR HAS REPOSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TC WINSTON INDUCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK EQUATORWARD ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC WINSTON WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACKS IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH SSTS WITH VWS VALUES DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES INTO A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER VWS VALUES AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//