WTPS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 171.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 171.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.1S 172.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 25.2S 174.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.9S 176.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.8S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 21.0S 178.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.2S 178.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.6S 176.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 172.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE REMAINS A CONSISTANT FEATURE, BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REFLECTING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED FROM 115 KNOTS, ON THE 121800Z OFF-CYCLE POSITION, TO 105 KNOTS. TC 11P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED OVER FIJI, BUT BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD AS A MERIDIONAL PATTERNED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF TC WINSTON. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT TO A NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE GRADIENT FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS NORTHWARD. DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48, BUT AS THE TRACK TAKES TC 11P EQUATORWARD, INCREASING SSTS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION FROM TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//