WTPS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 177.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 177.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.7S 179.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 22.2S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 20.8S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.7S 177.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.5S 176.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.3S 175.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.9S 175.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 178.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 11P HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 141017Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON A 141018Z ASCAT IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED UPON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY VALUES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 96, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED, AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 96, AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, GRADUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST AS IT TRACKS OVER AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS AND WARMER SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//