WTPS31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 172.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 172.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 17.3S 174.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.5S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.8S 177.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.1S 179.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 18.8S 178.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.8S 178.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.3S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 172.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE, RAGGED EYE WITH CLOUD-TOP COOLING OBSERVED WITHIN THE EYE WALL OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS. A 180951Z GPM 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC WINSTON HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED AFTER BEING QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY TAU 120, AS THE RIDGE RE-ORIENTS POLEWARD AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM TAU 12 TO 24, AS VWS REMAINS WEAK, AND SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT MOVES OVER AN AREA WITH INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN IMPROVED CONFIDENCE AS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190300Z.//