WTPS31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 174.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 174.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.8S 176.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.1S 178.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.4S 179.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.7S 178.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.5S 178.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.0S 178.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.3S 179.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 175.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH A 15 NM EYE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY BY TAU 72 AS IT MOVES OVER AN AREA WITH INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//