WTPS31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 177.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 177.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.3S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.4S 174.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.8S 173.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.7S 173.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.4S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.7S 176.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 27.0S 171.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 176.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 14-NM EYE HAS PASSED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VITI LEVU, FIJI AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC WINSTON HAS STARTED TO REGAIN ITS INTENSE CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN SURROUND THE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN THE BD CURVE ENHANCEMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE DETERIORATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS THE CYCLONE PASSED THROUGH FIJI. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) EASILY OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 28 CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE. TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO RECONSOLIDATE AND THEN STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. CONCURRENTLY, THE STEERING STR WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALLOWING A SECONDARY RIDGE TO BUILD IN JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE COMBINED EFFECTS WILL ALLOW TC WINSTON TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. NEAR TAU 48, TC 11P WILL REACH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM INTENSITY DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTERWARDS, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS. THESE DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE FINAL WEAKENING TREND. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS THE CYCLONE NEARS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24; HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR TERM, THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 24 LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//