WTPS31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 173.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 173.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.7S 172.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.4S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.6S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.2S 173.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.4S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 26.6S 170.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 28.7S 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 173.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE THAT HAS BECOME FURTHER ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED FORWARD SPEED ALLOWING THE 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 17NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 115 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS, STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, AND DECREASING CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 11P STILL HAS A STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS TRACKING OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC WINSTON IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS A SECOND RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE EAST AND ASSUMES STEERING. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE NEW STR WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS PREVENTS THE SYSTEM FROM GAINING SYMMETRY. BEYOND TAU 24, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN AS IT TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER (30 CELSIUS) WATER AND GAINS A STRONGER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL MOVE OVER DECREASING SSTS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING TREND. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WHERE VWS WILL REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS WARM CORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGIN SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE SPREAD ONCE THE CYCLONE TURNS POLEWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//