WTPS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 172.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 172.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.4S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.5S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.8S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.2S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.7S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 26.5S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.6S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 172.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NOTED IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TC WINSTON OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A CLOUD-FILLED BUT DISTINCT EYE HAS REAPPEARED, AND THE OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED BASED ON THE PRESENTATION IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 212224Z AMSU-B 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY CONCENTRATED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED, WITH A POINT SOURCE REDEVELOPING ON TOP OF TC WINSTON, REDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 10-15 KNOTS AND PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING OVER A POOL OF 31 CELSIUS WATER, SUPPORTING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC WINSTON HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE STEERING MECHANISM IS SHIFTING FROM THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST TO A SECOND RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC WINSTON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24 AS THE SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS IN. VWS WILL INCREASE AND SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AFTER TAU 24 LEADING TO A RELATIVELY RAPID WEAKENING TREND ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 72, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGIN SUB- TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH A COMPLETE TRANSITION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE REMAINING TAUS LEADING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//