WTPS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 040// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 040 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 173.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 173.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.7S 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.3S 174.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.7S 174.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 25.0S 173.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.9S 167.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUB-TROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 173.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, CLOUD- FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AGENCY FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 222204Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LARGE (45 NM) EYE, AFTER RECENT COMPLETION OF AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0-4.5 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW TC WINSTON IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD AHEAD OF, AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COLDER (25-28C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY SUB- TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//