WTPS31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 041// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 041 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 173.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 173.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.5S 174.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.1S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.5S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.8S 170.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 27.9S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY-DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 230453Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, BROAD CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 11P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW. BY TAU 72, 11P WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//