WTPS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 043// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 043 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 174.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 174.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.3S 174.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.9S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.3S 170.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 27.4S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUB-TROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 174.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOP WARMING, AND A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231607Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, HOWEVER MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETRIC DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SLIGHTLY DECREASED OUTFLOW. TC 11P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 11P WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COLD SSTS. TC WINSTON WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL LOW, AND TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//