WTPS51 PGTW 121500 WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 160212133357 2016021212 11P WINSTON 005 02 185 10 SATL 015 T000 197S 1715E 105 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD T012 220S 1719E 125 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD T024 241S 1731E 130 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD T036 249S 1750E 125 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD T048 247S 1770E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD T072 215S 1796E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 135 NW QD T096 193S 1766W 075 T120 185S 1728W 075 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 171.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 171.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.0S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.1S 173.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.9S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.7S 177.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 21.5S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.3S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.5S 172.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EXTREMELY WELL DEFINED AND CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC WINSTON HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 36 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND REPOSITIONS TO THE NORTH OF TC WINSTON, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AND MAINTAINS A GENERAL EAST- NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC WINSTON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER AREAS OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SSTS, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPERIENCING INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK TO AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE, OHC AND SSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE, THEREBY ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// 1116020818 111S1680E 20 1116020900 117S1686E 20 1116020906 123S1689E 20 1116020912 130S1692E 20 1116020918 136S1695E 20 1116021000 141S1700E 25 1116021006 145S1704E 30 1116021012 149S1707E 35 1116021018 153S1709E 40 1116021100 157S1711E 40 1116021106 161S1714E 45 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021112 167S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021118 174S1716E 55 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021200 180S1716E 65 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021206 187S1716E 95 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105 1116021212 197S1715E 105