WTIO30 FMEE 141815



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 89.7 E

(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 430 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 310 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/15 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/02/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 86.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/02/16 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/02/16 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/02/17 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/02/17 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/18 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/02/19 18 UTC: 26.0 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5.

URIAH HAS JUST COME INTO LA REUNION'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY COMING

FROM AUSTRALIAN'S.



DURING THE LAST HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A CURVED

BAND WRAPPING 0.9 AROUND THE CENTRE, AS SEEN ON THE 1525Z AMSU DATA

AND LAST SATELLITE IR IMAGERY.



DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE MODERATE NORTH-EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL

CONSTRAINT WILL BE OFFSET BY A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, SO THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY. BEYOND, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS

WILL IMPROVE UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AND THE PERSISTENT POLAR

OUTFLOW.



URIAH IS FORECAST TO GO ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING

INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EATS. UP TO

WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST AS

THE RIDGE REBUILD IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

FROM THURSDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE DECREASE OF

THE OCH SOUTH OF 23S.=