WTIO30 FMEE 150621



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 88.4 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 310 SE: 520 SW: 280 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 220

48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/15 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/02/16 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/02/16 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/02/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/02/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/02/18 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/19 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/02/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0 CI=3.5



DURING THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH

HOTTER SUMMITS. PRECIPITABLE WATER CIMSS PRODUCT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH

THE WATER VAPOR MICRO-WAVE DATA, SUGGESTING THAT SOME DRY AIR IS

WRAPPING AROUND URIAH IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. THIS AIR

MASS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY IN THE

UPPER TROPOSPHERE, INDICATING A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION.





URIAH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WEST, STEERED BY

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ON ITS SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM

WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, WITH THE REBUILDING

OF A RIDGE, IN THE EAST. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, URIAH IS LIKELY TO

SLOWDOWN AND GO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE

IN THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN A RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THIS FORECAST.



ON THIS TRACK, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE UP TO

THURSDAY WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR MASS

WRAPPING AROUND URIAH MAY DELAY THE DEEPENING. ON WEDNESDAY, THE

BUILDING OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE POLAR SIDE IS LIKELY TO HELP

THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING MORE RAPIDLY. AFTER THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE NORTH-WESTERLY VWS, AND START THE

WEAKENING, ACCENTUATED BY THE MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF

23S.=