WTIO30 FMEE 151229



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20152016

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 87.9 E

(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/0 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 310 SE: 520 SW: 280 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 220







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/16 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 85.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/02/16 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 83.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/02/17 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/02/17 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/02/18 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/02/18 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/19 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=3.0- CI=3.5-



SINCE 06UTC, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NEAR THE CENTER, BUT

CLOUD PATTERN HAS WORSEN. ON THE LAST IMAGES, A NEW CURVED BAND IS

WRAPPING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHILE THE SUMMITS ARE AGAIN

GETTING HOTTER. DRY AIR MASS IS REACHING THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT,

AND STILL LIMITING URIAH DEEPENING.





TOMORROW, URIAH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WEST,

STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ON ITS SOUTH-EAST. FROM WEDNESDAY,

THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, WITH THE

REBUILDING OF A RIDGE, IN THE EAST. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, URIAH IS

LIKELY TO SLOWDOWN BECAUSE OF THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER THE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHER. A LOW LEVEL

TROUGH MAY STEER URIAH SOUTH-EASTWARDS TO THE MID-LATITUDES.





ON THIS TRACK, UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE UP TO

THURSDAY WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR MASS

WRAPPING AROUND URIAH MAY DELAY THE DEEPENING. ON WEDNESDAY, THE

BUILDING OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE POLAR SIDE IS LIKELY TO HELP

THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING MORE RAPIDLY. AFTER THURSDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE NORTH-WESTERLY VWS, AND START THE

WEAKENING, ACCENTUATED BY THE MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF

23S.=